Brown gains momentum; Hogan has a tea party

The Jacksonville Mayoral race is heating up. Democratic candidate Alvin Brown has gained the support of a long-time republican fundraiser who has vowed to bring $300,000 to his campaign. To add to that thunder, his camp released some new poll findings that could increase his chances to steal the win from his favored opponent. Meanwhile, Republican candidate Mike Hogan held a campaign event with Governor Rick Scott last Friday (04/15/2011), and attended a Tea Party event at the Jacksonville Landing. 

It seems that Brown is making a strong move to gather moderate voters across the city, while Hogan is sticking with cultivating the already solid Tea Party vote. Could Brown pull off another upset?

Abel Harding was first to report it in the Florida Times Union: former St. Joe executive and prominent Republican fundraiser Peter Rummell has endorsed Alvin Brown for Jacksonville mayor. He donated $150,000 to a political action committee supporting Brown's candidacy and says he has gathered commitments from others in the community to match it. Rummell says that many of the contributors are business owners, and many are Republican. This could be a sign that the moderate republicans are shifting more toward Brown than Hogan.

More good news for the Brown campaign came out in an e-mail sent to his supporters on Monday (04/19/2011). The e-mail, from Brown campaign manager Craig Kirby, highlights three main points:

1. "Alvin Brown essentially matches Mike Hogan in name identification. Alvin receives strong favorable ratings from Democrats and Independents (60% favorable, 22% unfavorable, 19% cannot rate). Even Republicans have a net favorable opinion of Alvin. Hogan’s name identification is higher than Alvin’s due to higher unfavorable ratings (63% favorable, 31% unfavorable, 6% cannot rate)."
2. "Voters are clamoring for new leadership and a new direction. By a significant margin, voters say that the city is headed in the wrong direction and want new leadership."
3. "When voters learn about Alvin Brown’s background as a businessman and his vision for the city they move quickly to support him.  In fact, in the informed vote Alvin leads Mike Hogan (50% Brown, 42% Hogan, 8% undecided)."

This e-mail could breath some optimism into the campaign. The survey was performed by Hamilton Campaigns on a poll of 500 likely voters in Duval County. A copy of a memorandum summarizing the findings can be found here.

Meanwhile, the Hogan campaign is staying away from courting the moderate and independent vote and is instead actively engaging the Tea Party vote. Hogan hosted an event at his Campaign Headquarters at US17 and Timaquana Rd. with Governor Rick Scott. Scott was in town to attend a Tea Party rally a the Jacksonville Landing downtown. Hogan does have many union endorsements, including those of the Fraternal Order of Police and International Association of Fire Fighter locals here in town.  It will be interesting to see how Hogan would address the issue of pension reform with constituent bases on such opposite sides of the issue.